India to Drive Global Oil Demand Growth in 2025, Doubling China’s Pace: OPEC
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| India will drive global oil demand growth in 2025, doubling China’s pace, says OPEC. A dusky silhouette of an oil pump captures this rising energy momentum. |
India is set to become the fastest-growing major oil consumer in 2025, with demand projected to rise by 3.39%, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This growth will outpace China, whose oil demand is forecast to rise by only 1.5%.
Key Highlights:
India’s oil demand is expected to increase from 5.55 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to 5.74 million bpd in 2025.
By 2026, demand is projected to rise further by 4.28% to 5.99 million bpd.
China's demand will rise more slowly, by 1.5% in 2025 and 1.25% in 2026.
The United States will remain the largest oil consumer globally, with 20.5 million bpd in 2025, followed by China at 16.9 million bpd, and India third.
Growth Drivers for India:
Rapid economic expansion, consumer spending, infrastructure projects, and government support in key sectors.
Diesel remains the primary driver of oil demand, especially with rising transport and industrial use.
Bitumen demand is increasing due to nationwide road construction.
Petrochemical feedstock needs are rising in line with manufacturing and industrial growth.
Outlook for 2026:
India’s oil demand is expected to rise by 246,000 bpd to an average of 6.0 million bpd, supported by strong manufacturing and service sector growth.
Crude Import Trends:
India imports over 85% of its crude oil needs.
In March 2025, India’s crude imports hit a record high of 5.4 million bpd, a 5% monthly increase.
Russia was the top supplier with 36% share, followed by Iraq (17%) and Saudi Arabia (11%).
Product imports rose by 2%, driven by higher LPG inflows, while exports dipped by 3% due to reduced gasoline and naphtha shipments.
Economic Outlook:
OPEC noted that India’s economic momentum remains strong, despite external challenges like new US tariffs. Fiscal and monetary support is expected to cushion any negative impacts. The oil demand outlook for India remains positive, with steady growth anticipated in the near term.